Estimating the enrollment impact of changes to Medicaid expansion

Situation

A client sought Avalere Health’s assistance to estimate the effects of rolling back or altering Medicaid expansion in states that expanded Medicaid eligibility to 138% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) under the Affordable Care Act (ACA).​

Solution

Avalere Health utilized Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services enrollment data and American Community Survey data to: ​

• Identify the number of individuals enrolled in the adult expansion population, specifically those individuals with incomes between 100% and 138% of the FPL​
• Provide the number of individuals who would be affected by changes in eligibility by state, county, and legislative district​

Success

Avalere Health supported the client by quantifying the number of individuals who would likely lose Medicaid coverage if states revert to pre-ACA coverage levels, as well as developing an interactive dashboard to view findings.​ This enabled to client to view scenarios and findings in real-time.